What we now know…

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Opium production in SE Asia has increased more than 2 times over the past 6 years. Primary demand comes from China.

In the past, poor countries could, and did, ignore the social and economic drains of addiction. Today, China is not poor and fully understands the costs.

Obvious implications for healthcare include growth in rehabilitation services and facilities.


Target deficit goals for the national budget are the ubiquitous 3% of GDP. Like the failed 3% of the EU’s Maastricht Treaty (the Euro guiding document), India’s targeted deficit holds little water….but for one thing:

The Indian government will increasingly turn to the private sector to deliver goods and services. This is a very strong indication of a bright future for private healthcare.

PS: Current budget deficit expected to go over 6% this year and only 20% of government borrowing goes to “growth generating” capital projects.


Unemployment now at 25.4%, double the EU average. And Greece’s rate is 58% for those aged between 15 and 24 years.

The good news for Greece? Spain’s unemployment rate is higher still, at 25.5%.

Uptick for healthcare: long term investment positions best. Pharma and medical device companies will struggle with receivables for some time.


One third of Greeks can no longer afford any prescribed drugs or tests.

Malaria is making a comeback. Eradicated in 1974, government cutbacks in 2011eliminated aerial sprayings that kill mosquito larvae.

Though “pandemics and emerging diseases” was one of our Top 10 Plus One Global Healthcare Trends, the unintended growth of eradicated diseases due to fiscal austerity is a surprise.


South Africa
South Africa’s miners have the highest recorded rate of TB in the world.


“We’ve waited 63 years and we don’t even know what a ballot looks like.” Anonymous.

This quote was in response to the USA presidential election-day waiting times at some polling stations.


Number of pharmaceutical sales reps from the top 10 companies working in China:

2006      6,000

2011    25,000+

This data is from an excellent macro report from McKinsey titled “Healthcare in China: Entering Uncharted Waters.” For a copy go to:
http://phm-monitor.com/resources/countries-regions/ (Titled: China HC-McKinsey 11-2012.pdf)


South Sudan
Population:               10.6 million
Fertility rate              5.66 (Vietnam: 1.89)
Adult literacy rate      27%

Property rights are questionable. Infrastructure includes a total of 60 km of paved roads. 98% of government revenue is derived from oil.

Hepatitis E has struck at least 1,000 refugees in South Sudan, with death toll already reaching 26.


Once again, Oxfam is challenged by the realities of change.

“…a third of the world’s poorest people live in India,” Oxfam was quoted in response to an announcement of Britain stopping direct aid to India by 2015. Oxfam wants the aid to continue.

Annual British aid to India is approximately $448 million USD.

India has the world’s 4th largest GDP, 5 spots AHEAD of the UK.

Britain’s annual aid to India is less than 1% of India’s GDP. How much less? It is equal to 0.00026% of India’s GDP.

Another perspective of Oxfam’s disorientation? Britain was providing aid to a nuclear armed country.


It was reported earlier in November that up to seven bidders may battle for the medical services company LuxMed, put up for sale for Mid Europa Partners. They include private equity groups Blackstone, Bridgepoint, EQT and BC Partners.

Bupa knocking about?


On the ground in….Mexico
Last month, in meetings with the federal government’s retirement regulatory body, CONSOR, the message conveyed was clear: healthcare is the single largest expense (and threat) to the country’s future.

» Uncategorized » What we now know…
On November 27, 2012

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